|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
President Donald Trump says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities, a claim that has already moved oil markets and been met with doubt on the ground. Trump announced the deal on Sunday, October 11, in a post on Truth Social, writing that an energy ceasefire was in effect immediately and that both parties had agreed. Within hours, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian strikes were still happening, and as of Monday neither Moscow nor Kyiv had formally confirmed the arrangement, according to market and news reports.
The announcement came at the end of a tense few days. On Friday, Trump said he had struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to bring down soaring fuel prices, a move that angered Kyiv, Axios reported. Trump also said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons, about 2.25 million barrels, of diesel to the United States and global markets, according to Reuters. On Saturday, Trump said it was time for Ukraine to get a new president and accused Zelensky of passing up chances to end the war. The energy ceasefire followed a day later, framed by the White House as a way to ease global oil and diesel prices pushed up by damage to infrastructure on both sides.
The trade-off at the heart of the deal is clear. Russia has been hitting Ukraine’s power grid with large-scale missile strikes, while Ukraine has been attacking Russian oil refineries with drone swarms. Those attacks led Moscow to impose a temporary ban in July on exports of most diesel, jet fuel and gasoline, which it recently extended through October, according to Bloomberg. Before the restrictions and the refinery strikes, Russia accounted for about 10 percent of global seaborne diesel supplies. A Washington Times report cited sources saying Ukraine has damaged about half of Russia’s refining capacity, a figure that has not been independently verified in the coverage reviewed.
Zelensky’s response was cautious rather than dismissive. He told Axios that the announcement took him by surprise, saying that if Trump negotiated it with Putin, Ukraine would like to know when the ceasefire begins and was ready to accept it. Later he said Ukraine supports the ceasefire but that it is important Russia supports it too, and that Kyiv was awaiting details from Washington. He also said Russia does not feel real pressure and wants to continue the war, and he has repeatedly said Ukraine would stop striking Russian refineries if Moscow halted attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. On ABC’s This Week earlier on Sunday, he said Ukraine would hold elections if Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, a direct reply to Trump’s call for new leadership.
The facts on the ground undercut the announcement within hours. France 24 reported new Russian strikes following Trump’s statement, and CBS News said Zelensky reported that Russian attacks were still taking place. Axios noted that both countries continued attacking energy infrastructure after the announcement, and that it remained unclear whether Russia had agreed to stop. The Kremlin’s position was not available in the reports reviewed, so the claim that both parties have agreed rests, for now, on Trump’s word alone.
This is not the first energy truce to be announced and then tested. The Associated Press reported in January that Trump said Putin had agreed to a temporary halt in energy attacks on Ukraine, but the terms were unclear, and Zelensky said Russia struck energy assets in several regions the day before the supposed pause. ATFX Capital’s market note added that Trump had announced an energy ceasefire in mid-September that neither side confirmed. Earlier, in March 2025, the Kremlin said Putin had accepted a US proposal to pause strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days, provided Ukraine did the same. The pattern suggests these arrangements tend to be narrow, short-lived and contested, and each side has accused the other of violations.
Oil traders reacted quickly. Brent crude fell about 1.2 to 1.5 percent on Monday to roughly $103 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate dropped about 1.8 percent to $90.20, according to HDFC Sky’s market report. Reuters said ICE gasoil futures, a benchmark for diesel, fell 3 percent to $1,436 per metric ton after Trump’s diesel announcement. The decline was limited because the Middle East conflict continues to support prices. Over the weekend, Houthi forces attacked Riyadh’s airport, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported two tanker attacks, and Trump said the United States is considering joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis, Reuters said. At the same time, energy companies were restoring oil production in the Gulf of Mexico after a storm. Brent has hovered above $100 for much of the month, a level that makes any possible easing in supply worth a few percent.
For diesel users, the implications are more specific. Europe’s average diesel price hit a record of €2.24 a litre in late September, and countries including the US, China and Russia had been restricting or threatening to restrict exports. If Russia ships the promised additional cargoes and Ukraine refrains from hitting refineries and export terminals, global diesel supply could ease at a time when inventories are tight ahead of winter. If either part of the arrangement fails, the market would likely revert to its previous nervousness. The diesel agreement itself is also contentious, since easing sanctions on Russian fuel exports undermines a key tool the West has used to pressure Moscow, and Ukrainian officials have said they were infuriated by it.
There are broader political stakes. Trump’s pairing of a sanctions easing with an energy ceasefire, alongside public criticism of Zelensky, signals a push to bring the war to a negotiated settlement through economic levers. Critics worry it rewards Russia without securing durable concessions, while supporters argue that lowering fuel prices and stopping attacks on civilian power systems are worthwhile goals in themselves. Ukraine’s grid has suffered repeated outages from Russian strikes, and Moscow residents also complained of power cuts, according to CBS, which shows that the damage runs in both directions.
What would a real ceasefire look like? At a minimum, it would involve a clear start time, a shared understanding of which facilities are covered, some form of monitoring and a process for handling alleged violations. None of that has been published. Zelensky’s request to be told when the ceasefire begins shows how little detail has reached Kyiv, and the lack of a Russian confirmation leaves open whether Moscow views the arrangement as a binding commitment or a US statement of intent. Without those elements, it is difficult to tell a violated ceasefire from one that never started.
For readers following energy markets, the practical indicators are straightforward. Watch for formal confirmation from the Kremlin and Kyiv, reports of strikes on refineries, ports or power plants, the pace of Russian diesel exports and whether the temporary export ban is lifted or extended after October. Gasoil and Brent prices will reflect trust in the deal faster than diplomatic statements. Axios has a clear summary of the sequence in its report on the announcement, and CBS News is tracking the conflicting claims in its live coverage.
Readers who follow global energy, markets and technology can find more coverage at BusinessTech Nigeria. The statement from Washington is a promise of calm in one of the war’s most destructive sectors, but until both sides say so and the strikes stop, it remains a claim that markets are pricing with caution.
