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The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said in its September 2026 factsheet, released on Thursday, that total daily petrol receipts fell 23.4 percent to 38.7 million litres from 50.5 million litres in August, while consumption rose 7 percent to 44.4 million litres a day. Nigeria used more petrol in September and received less of it, a mismatch that the regulator’s latest figures lay bare. That leaves a gap of 5.7 million litres a day, and it arrives just as the government is arguing over pump prices, a discount scheme and the return of the fuel subsidy.
The decline came from both of Nigeria’s supply routes. Domestic refinery receipts dropped 20.6 percent, from 35.9 million litres a day in August to 28.5 million in September, according to Vanguard’s report on the data. Imports fell harder, down 30.1 percent from 14.6 million litres a day to 10.2 million. Because imports dropped more sharply, local refineries’ share of supply edged up to about 73.6 percent from roughly 71 percent a month earlier, with imports making up the remaining 26.4 percent. Over the 13-month period covered by the regulator’s data, domestic refineries supplied an average of 30.4 million litres a day, or 61.2 percent of the total, while imports contributed 19.3 million litres, or 38.8 percent.
The regulator offered an explanation for the import fall. The NMDPRA said the drop reflected a 30 percent reduction in imports amid the exhaustion of approved import permit volumes, according to Vanguard. In other words, importers had used up the quantities they were licensed to bring in, which limited further cargoes. The reports reviewed do not say how permits are renewed or whether new volumes have been approved, so it is not clear whether imports will bounce back in October. The wording suggests a regulatory constraint as much as a market decision.
The fall in local receipts is less straightforward. ThisDay reported that the decline came even though the Dangote Petroleum Refinery was operating above its installed capacity, and that local supplies fell as exports rose and stocks accumulated, though it did not break down how much went to each. The regulator’s figures count products evacuated from refinery gantries and coastal movements into the local market, so petrol that is produced but exported or held in storage does not appear as domestic supply. That distinction matters because the refinery has been shipping more fuel to West African neighbours, a trend covered earlier this month, and because Dangote has said neighbouring countries often pay prices 30 to 50 percent higher than Nigerians. If part of the output goes where prices are better, the domestic market can feel short even when production is strong.
Crude feedstock also tightened. Domestic crude supply to Nigerian refineries fell 6.3 percent to 15.97 million barrels in September from 17.05 million barrels in August, the NMDPRA said, according to Vanguard. ThisDay put the share of feedstock intake supplied from Nigerian crude at 80.4 percent. Those figures fit the picture painted this month by Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele, who said Nigeria does not have enough freely available crude to meet the Dangote refinery’s full requirement. A refinery that cannot secure all the crude it wants will either buy at international prices or run below capacity, and either way the supply of petrol can wobble from month to month.
The coverage ratio shows how thin the buffer is. Total receipts covered about 87.2 percent of reported consumption in September, Nairametrics noted. Petrol stock cover improved slightly from 22.9 days to 23.9 days but remained below the regulator’s 30-day benchmark. Stock cover is a measure of how many days the country could meet demand from stored petrol if deliveries stopped, so a figure under 30 days means less margin for error if supply is disrupted. For comparison, the NMDPRA reported 20 days of stock sufficiency in June, according to Legit.ng, so cover has improved from that level without reaching target.
Demand is the other piece. Consumption rose to 44.4 million litres a day in September even as pump prices topped ₦1,400 per litre in some cities, ThisDay said, which is notable because the regulator’s first-half data showed petrol consumption falling by about 52 million litres, suggesting high prices were beginning to curb demand. A single month’s rise of 7 percent does not reverse that trend, and the regulator’s figures count distribution into the market, which can include stock building by retailers and depots anticipating price changes. The reports reviewed do not explain the September jump, so it should be treated as a data point, not a new trend.
Why does this matter beyond statistics? Because supply shortfalls tend to show up as pressure on pump prices, queues and parallel market premiums. The government is currently running a 30-day discount at NNPC stations, with the retailer forgoing its margin, and President Bola Tinubu said this week that there will be no return to subsidy. A tighter supply picture makes the intended relief harder to deliver, since a discount at a few hundred stations cannot offset a national shortfall. It also puts attention on the import side: Nigeria’s petrol import bill rose by 989.4 percent quarter on quarter to ₦952.15 billion in the second quarter, from ₦87.4 billion in the first, according to Nairametrics, which shows how quickly the country can swing back toward foreign supply when local refining falters.
The longer view is more hopeful. Imports had fallen steeply from earlier years: the petrol import bill came down to $10 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, Nairametrics reported, as local refining expanded. The regulator’s first-half data had local refineries supplying about 78 percent of petrol. September’s 73.6 percent share is slightly below that, which indicates that domestic supply is still dominant but not yet reliable enough to cover demand on its own. As the report’s own analysis suggested, reducing import dependence will require domestic refineries to deliver consistent volumes while making sure enough of it reaches the Nigerian market.
What to watch next is straightforward. First, the October factsheet will show whether imports recover once permits are renewed and whether local receipts bounce back. Second, the balance between exports and domestic sales at the Dangote refinery will matter, along with any policy response if exports are seen to squeeze local supply. Third, stock cover: moving toward 30 days would signal more resilience, while a fall would flag risk of shortages ahead of the festive season. The regulator publishes its monthly data on the NMDPRA website, and Vanguard has a detailed account in its report on the September figures.
Readers who follow Nigeria’s energy, economy and business stories can find more coverage at BusinessTech Nigeria. The September numbers tell a simple story: Nigerians are burning more petrol than the country is receiving, and the gap is being covered by drawing on stocks that are still below the safety target.
