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US crude slipped on Monday, but the move says less about weak demand than about a market pulled in opposite directions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell about 1.4 percent to $90.55 a barrel, according to ABC News’s market snapshot, down from a close of $91.67 on Friday. Other quotes put the benchmark between roughly $90.30 and $91.40 during the session, which is typical when prices are moving within a narrow band. The decline came even as Hurricane Isaias knocked a large share of Gulf of Mexico production offline, a reminder that supply scares and diplomatic headlines are currently canceling each other out.
The storm is the story that belongs most to WTI. Isaias, now a hurricane, forced companies to evacuate platforms across the US Gulf, and the numbers reported by agencies vary by day and source. The Associated Press said more than two-thirds of Gulf oil production was shut in on Friday as personnel left 129 production platforms. Other reports put the shut-in volume at about 1.3 million barrels per day, or roughly 63 percent of output, while a Friday market note cited 1.5 million barrels per day, about 72 percent. The offshore Gulf supplies about 15 percent of US crude, and the federal Marine Minerals Administration was the source of the platform and volume figures. The differences reflect changing counts as the storm moved, not disagreement about the scale of the disruption.
The government has responded with emergency crude. FXStreet reported that the US Department of Energy approved an emergency exchange of up to 4 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to offset the storm’s effect, on top of exchanges of 40 million barrels announced on September 29. The reserve was already low: Trading Economics, citing the Energy Information Administration (EIA), said it fell to a near-record low. Releasing more oil gives refiners a bridge, but it also draws down a buffer meant for larger emergencies, and at least some of that oil comes back later in the form of returns, depending on the terms.
Analysts see the bigger risk in refining, not drilling. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told NBC News that refineries in the storm’s path could be flooded and taken offline for up to 10 days, and he said offshore production shut in for the storm should return quickly, within a couple of days, once crews can go back. Carl Larry of Enverus told the AP that if the storm passes quickly and the damage is limited, fuel prices might rise only a few cents, but a major power outage at refineries could cause immediate spikes, with diesel, already above $6 a gallon in some areas, potentially approaching $7. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates warned in a note that the timing is poor because gasoline and diesel inventories are quite low.
The numbers on US retail fuel show why that matters. NBC News said gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon, slightly lower than a week earlier but 21 cents higher than a month ago. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on October 6, said gasoline averaged $4.35 and diesel $6.29 a gallon in September, driven by higher crude prices and rising crack spreads, the margin refiners earn when turning crude into fuels. The agency raised its forecast and now expects Brent to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, citing extreme tightness in diesel markets that raises demand for crude as refiners work to produce more of it. For 2027 it expects retail diesel to average about $4.50 and gasoline just under $3.60 a gallon, forecasts that assume Middle East supply recovers.
On Monday, the downward pressure on WTI came from diplomacy. Oil slipped after President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire, following a deal under which Russia would supply extra diesel to the US and global markets. OilPrice.com reported that Axios has since said the arrangement is a narrower, refinery-only ceasefire proposal, and that neither side has confirmed it, a detail that adds to the caution around that news. A separate sign of de-escalation came from US-Iran talks, which Trading Economics said Trump described as productive when he said he would not strike Iran again before the November midterm elections. Those developments were enough to push crude lower despite the shut-in production.
The Middle East continues to set the floor. Houthi strikes on Riyadh’s airport over the weekend, tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and a shipping market clogged by tankers waiting outside the strait keep Brent above $100. The spread between Brent and WTI has widened to roughly $13, which Reuters said reflects high US-Europe shipping costs. That matters for US producers: American crude is cheaper at home than abroad because moving it across the Atlantic is expensive, so fewer barrels reach the buyers who would pay the most. OilPrice’s data screen showed WTI Midland at $90.86 and Murban crude, the Middle East benchmark, near $110.60, a gap that illustrates how fragmented the global market has become.
For traders, the technical picture is tight. TradingKey’s analysis put short-term resistance near $96.50 and support in the $90 to $90.50 zone, which is where Monday’s low-to-mid price fell. TD Securities noted that systematic funds known as CTAs have been whipsawed around the $90 level, a sign that trend-following money lacks conviction either way. In practice, that means moves on headlines can be sharp but short-lived, as seen on Monday.
US production adds another dimension. The EIA’s weekly data shows output near 13.98 million barrels per day, and its outlook has 2026 production at about 13.9 million rising to 14.3 million next year, which indicates that American producers are adding supply even at current prices. Stockpiles fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week ended October 2, against forecasts for a build, and refinery utilization rose to 92.7 percent. Those are signs of strong demand for crude from refiners, though the hurricane’s effect will not show up until the next weekly reports.
What to watch this week is fairly concrete. First, how quickly Gulf platforms and refineries restart, which will determine whether the storm is a short blip or a drag on supply. Second, official inventory numbers, especially distillate stocks and refinery runs after landfall. Third, confirmation or denial of the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and details of the diesel deal. Fourth, any progress in US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz or further attacks on tankers. The EIA publishes its latest forecasts and weekly data on its Short-Term Energy Outlook page, and NBC News has a good explainer on how Isaias threatens gasoline prices.
Readers who follow global energy, markets and technology can find more coverage at BusinessTech Nigeria. For now, WTI’s small fall is the market’s way of saying it does not yet know which story will win: a storm that is hitting supply or a set of diplomatic moves that might ease it.
